2022年6月15日聯準會會議報告簡析

聯準會於2022年6月15日宣布升息3碼，當日美股大漲，然而在隔日又大跌。美股上衝下洗，聯準會2022年6月15日到底說了什麼？

重點摘要

Overall economic activity appears to have picked up after edging down in the first quarter. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.

整體經濟活動在第一季放緩後有上升跡象。近幾月，就業成長狀況健康，且失業率仍然維持低點。通膨率維持較高，反映出供給及需求因疫情、高能源價格極整體物價壓力造成的失衡狀況。

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1‑1/2 to 1-3/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

聯準會追求達成就業率最大化及長期通膨 2% 目標。為了達成這些目標，我們決定決定將目標聯邦基金利率範圍調整為 1.5% 到 1.75% 並合理預期後續持將續升息。另外，聯準會遵五月發布的「聯邦儲備資產負債表縮減計畫」持續減少所持有的國庫證劵、機構債、機構房地產擔保證劵。本會對於通膨率轉回 2% 的目標具有強烈決心。

Recent indicators suggest that real GDP growth has picked up this quarter, with consumption spending remaining strong. In contrast, growth in business fixed investment appears to be slowing, and activity in the housing sector looks to be softening, in part reflecting higher mortgage rates. The tightening in financial conditions that we have seen in recent months should continue to temper growth and help bring demand into better balance with supply. As shown in our Summary of Economic Projections, FOMC participants have marked down their projections for economic activity, with the median projection for real GDP growth running below 2 percent through 2024.

近期數據顯示實質 GDP 成長率本季有上升跡象，消費仍然穩健。然而，企業固定資產投資成長率趨緩，房屋市場似乎也漸趨疲軟，多少反映了較高的房貸利率。近幾月我們看到的金融環境緊縮狀況將持續削弱成長並幫助將需求帶進與供給的平衡。就如同經濟預測總結所示，聯邦公開市場操作委員會會員已調降經濟活動預測，2024年實質 GDP 成長率預測為低於 2%。

簡析

聯準會一次升息3碼，相當多，並且也宣布可能會打擊到需求。經濟成長的環節中，不外乎就是供給及需求良性循環，導致資本累積，最後形成通貨膨脹，是好事。

不過現在通膨率遠遠大於聯準會的目標2%，導致他們不得不加速升息，提高失業率，縮減需求面，甚至導致實質GDP下降。

我想，聯準會打擊通膨勢在必行，接續就要觀察以下事項，才能看出經濟是否衰退：

1. 利率曲線是否倒掛？
2. 美元指數是否由漲轉跌？
3. 本次升息後，通膨率是否下降？
4. 下一次會議公布的實質GDP預測是否更低？

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資料來源
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement，Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System，2022年6月15日，https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220615a.html