聯準會主席鮑威國會作證將致力控制通膨

聯準會主席鮑威於6月22日時於國會作證將致力控制通膨於其長線平均於 2% 目標，重點及分析如下。

摘要

Inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent. Over the 12 months ending in April, total PCE (personal consumption expenditures) prices rose 6.3 percent; excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 4.9 percent. The available data for May suggest the core measure likely held at that pace or eased slightly last month. Aggregate demand is strong, supply constraints have been larger and longer lasting than anticipated, and price pressures have spread to a broad range of goods and services. 

通膨持續保持在長線 2% 的目標。12個月來，個人消費物價指數上升了 6.3%；不列計價格波動較大的食品跟能源後，核心物價成長了 4.9%。 >目前資料顯示，五月物價成長與上述數據蓋同或略低於前月。總需求龐大，供給瓶頸程度及長度超乎預期，且物價壓力廣泛延伸到各商品及服務。

The labor market has remained extremely tight, with the unemployment rate near a 50‑year low, job vacancies at historical highs, and wage growth elevated. Over the past three months, employment rose by an average of 408,000 jobs per month, down from the average pace seen earlier in the year but still robust. Improvements in labor market conditions have been widespread, including for workers at the lower end of the wage distribution as well as for African Americans and Hispanics.  >

勞動市場非常吃緊，失業率接近 50 年來低點，職缺有史以來最多，薪資也在成長。過去三個月來，每個月平均增加 408,000 份工作，雖然比今天初較低，但是仍然穩健。就業市場的改善是廣泛的，包括薪資較低的工作及拉丁裔跟非裔人們。

Over coming months, we will be looking for compelling evidence that inflation is moving down, consistent with inflation returning to 2 percent. We anticipate that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate; the pace of those changes will continue to depend on the incoming data and the evolving outlook for the economy. 

未來幾個月，我們會持續關注通膨是否降溫。我們預期持續升息為適當做法；升息的步調將持續依據所獲數據及經濟的變化。 >

簡析

• 美國就業市場良好，通膨遠超過聯準會爾2%的目標，預期聯準會會持續升息。
• 近日油價有稍微穩定，後續是否將使整體物價止穩將是聯準會放緩升息步調重要關鍵。
• 升息是否打擊就業市場，導致經濟衰退也是重要觀察事項。
• 我認為美國就業狀況不會因為升息受傷太多，食品及能源價格也會有天花板，畢竟價格高就會有人想量產，供應鏈瓶頸也會因為隨著製造業看到市場機會而適當擴廠，長線來看通膨 1年內應該會受到控制，升息力度應該會因此放緩，建議美股市場型被動 ETF 可以持續持有或加碼，也可以試圖投資美國公債摸底賺差價。

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Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress. Board of Governors Federal Reserve System. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20220622a.htm. 2022/6/22