聯準會談及美元強勢

聯準會主席傑洛米‧鮑威爾2022年6月17日在聯準會贊助的研究會議「美元國際角色 (International Roles of the U.S. Dollar)」上談及美元國際定位，摘要如後：

摘要

The international financial and monetary system that emerged after World War II has been defined by the centrality of the dollar. It is the world's reserve currency and the most widely used for payments and investments. As outlined in recent work by Board staff, this global preeminence has been supported by the depth and liquidity of U.S. financial markets, the size and strength of the U.S. economy, its stability and openness to trade and capital flows, and international trust in U.S. institutions and the rule of law.

二戰後的國際金融及貨幣系統一直就以美金為中心。美金為世界儲備貨幣，在支付及投資上也是最廣泛使用。如同近幾週委員會成員描述的，這種國際優勢是由美國金融市場的深度及流動性、美國經濟的規模及實力、美金穩定性及貿易暨資本流通開放性及國際間對於美國機構及法律原則的信任。

The dollar's international role holds multiple benefits. For the United States, it lowers transaction fees and borrowing costs for U.S. households, businesses, and the government. Its ubiquity helps contain uncertainty and, relatedly, the cost of hedging for domestic households and businesses. For foreign economies, the wide use of the dollar allows borrowers to have access to a broad pool of lenders and investors, which reduces their funding and transaction costs. The benefits of the dollar as the dominant reserve currency have generated an extensive academic literature.

美元的國際地位擁有需多好處。對美國來說，可以降低民間、商業及政府交易費用及借貸成本。無所不在的美元控制住了不確定性，與此相關，也控制住國內民間及商業避險成本。對於外國經濟體而言，廣泛的使用美金提供了資金需求者一個及更大且充滿放款人及投資者的大水庫，減少了融資及交易成本。美元成為主要儲備或被的好處更觸及了學術領域。

The central bank liquidity swap lines provide foreign central banks with the capacity to deliver U.S. dollar funding to institutions in their jurisdictions. And the Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) Repo Facility allows approved FIMA account holders the option to temporarily exchange their U.S. Treasury securities held by the Federal Reserve for U.S. dollars. These facilities serve as liquidity backstops so that holders of dollar assets and participants in dollar funding markets can be confident that strains will be eased when these markets come under stress.

美國中央銀行流動性交換線 (The central bank liquidity swap lines) 使他國央行直接交付其國內機構美元。且外國及國際貨幣機構 (the Foreign and International Monetary Authorities, FIMA) 回購所能讓核准的 FIMA 帳戶持有人將手上保管在聯準會的美國國庫證劵暫時換成美金。這些場所擔任了流動性防線，因此美元資產持有者及美元融資市場參與人可以有信心，當市場受壓十，壓力能夠減小。

In light of the tremendous growth in crypto-assets and stablecoins, the Federal Reserve is examining whether a U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC) would improve on an already safe and efficient domestic payments system. As the Fed's white paper on this topic notes, a U.S. CBDC could also potentially help maintain the dollar's international standing.

鑒於加密貨幣及穩定幣 (stablecoins) 的龐大成長，聯準會正在檢視發行美國中央銀行數位貨幣 (U.S. central bank digital currency ,CBDC)是否能優化原本就已經安全高效的國內支付系統。如同聯準會此專案白皮書所示，CBDC 可能有機會幫助美元維持其國際地位。

簡析

美國同意外國法人短暫將其美國國債換成現金，這會強化美金的國際地位，因為表示美國國債不僅沒有違約紀錄，還可以快速短暫換成現金，這還沒算進美國國債交易市場本來就已經很龐大了。增加的流動性跟安全感，能增加美債的價值 (不是價格)，間接的穩固美元地位。

美元的廣泛使用的好處觸及了學術領域，個人非常有感。金融數學的理論要套在現實社會，最基本的就是交易量要夠大，流動性要夠好，不然在紙上算出來的數字根本不能用在實際交易上，其中也有可能大家有在 YouTube 廣告上看到的套利交易機器人等等的，另外一提，套利交易也數金融數學的成果。只要有套利機會，你覺得大型金融機構會放棄嗎？這也是為什麼會有無套利定價原則這種東西。

最後，聯準會竟然在考慮要發行數位貨幣，不夠我想發行的應該會是穩定幣，也就是加密或幣美金版本，或是與美金連結的加密貨幣，持有它就等於持有美金。雖然說聯準會表示發行 CBDC 可以穩固美元定位，但我覺得應該沒啥影響，人們還是用美金投資全球金融市場跟交易，發行了穩定幣後，還要拿美金換成穩定幣在買美股？再拿美股配息換成穩定幣買美股？意義何在？

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資料來源： Welcoming Remarks At the "International Roles of the U.S. Dollar," a research conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,2022/6/20,https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20220617a.htm