聯準會2020年貨幣政策檢視

聯準會美幾年就會檢討一次其貨幣政策，以下是2020年聯準會完成的貨幣政策檢視。

前言

In 2019, the Federal Reserve launched its first-ever comprehensive and public review of the monetary policy framework—the strategy, tools, and communication practices—it employs to achieve its congressionally mandated goals of maximum employment and price stability. At the time the Fed announced its review, employment and inflation were near the Fed's objectives, making it a good time to step back and consider whether the U.S. monetary policy framework could be improved to better meet future challenges.

2019 年的時候，聯準會史無前例地全面公開的檢視貨幣政策架構——策略、工具、溝通做法——聯準會用來達成國會要求的就業最大化及物價穩定目標。在聯準會發布這篇檢視報告的時候，就業率及物價接近聯準會的目標，讓當時成為一個好時機，退一步衡量美國貨幣政策架構是否可以進一步改善，以面對未來挑戰。

Moreover, good institutional practice suggests that routine self-evaluation is healthy for any organization. For the Fed, however, a fresh look had become particularly important because changes in the economic environment suggested that revisions to the existing framework could be helpful to policymakers in addressing future challenges. In particular, the neutral level of the federal funds rate (the Fed's policy interest rate)—the level that keeps the economy on an even keel when employment and inflation are close to their objectives—appears to have fallen in the United States and abroad. This decline increases the risk that the policy rate will fall to its effective lower bound near zero, thus constraining the ability to support the economy through reductions in the federal funds rate and, consequently, increasing risks that employment and inflation will fall below levels consistent with the dual mandate goals.

另外，定期自我檢視的良好組織做法對任何一個組長都是健康的。但是，對於聯準會而言，一個重新檢視已變成特別的重要，因為經濟環境的變化表示當前架構的修訂對於政策制訂者應付未來挑戰來說，相當有幫助。特別是聯邦基準利率（聯準會的政策利率）的中間值——當就業率跟物價接近目標時，讓經濟保持平衡的值——似乎在美國及全球都已降低。這樣的降低增加了政策利率降到有效最低利率近似零利率的風險，因此限制了降低聯邦基金利率以支撐經濟的能力，導致了就業率及物價無法達標的風險。

The review took the Federal Reserve's statutory mandate as given as well as the FOMC's previously articulated longer-run inflation objective of 2 percent. 

這份檢視報告將國會賦予目標及聯邦公開市場委員會先前闡明的長線 2% 通膨目標納入考量。

策略

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is firmly committed to fulfilling its statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The Committee seeks to explain its monetary policy decisions to the public as clearly as possible. Such clarity facilitates well-informed decisionmaking by households and businesses, reduces economic and financial uncertainty, increases the effectiveness of monetary policy, and enhances transparency and accountability, which are essential in a democratic society.

聯邦公開市場委員會將堅持滿足國會賦予的就業最大化、穩定物價及長線適中利率的目標。委員會將致力說明其貨幣政策予社會大眾。如此的清楚性將幫助家庭或企業執行決策，降低經濟及金融不確定性，增加貨幣政策效率，強化透明度及職責，這些對民主社會都很重要。

Employment, inflation, and long-term interest rates fluctuate over time in response to economic and financial disturbances. Monetary policy plays an important role in stabilizing the economy in response to these disturbances. The Committee's primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy is through changes in the target range for the federal funds rate. The Committee judges that the level of the federal funds rate consistent with maximum employment and price stability over the longer run has declined relative to its historical average.

就業率、通膨及長線利率會隨著經濟及金融波動而變化。貨幣政策在這些波動狀況下對於穩定物價扮演了一個重要角色。委員會主要調整貨幣政策步伐的工具為改變聯邦基金利率目標範圍。委員會與就業率最大化及穩定物價一致的聯邦基金利率是否長線看來，低於歷史平均值。

Therefore, the federal funds rate is likely to be constrained by its effective lower bound more frequently than in the past. Owing in part to the proximity of interest rates to the effective lower bound, the Committee judges that downward risks to employment and inflation have increased. The Committee is prepared to use its full range of tools to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.

因此，聯邦基金利率非常可能與過往相比，更常被有效最低利率限制。部分原因在於利率長期接近最低值，委員會評估，就業率及通膨向下的風險已經增加，並且已準備好運用手邊所有可用工具達到就業極大化及物價穩定目標。

The maximum level of employment is a broad-based and inclusive goal that is not directly measurable and changes over time owing largely to nonmonetary factors that affect the structure and dynamics of the labor market. Consequently, it would not be appropriate to specify a fixed goal for employment; rather, the Committee's policy decisions must be informed by assessments of the shortfalls of employment from its maximum level, recognizing that such assessments are necessarily uncertain and subject to revision. 

就業率極大化是個廣泛且概括性的目標，無法直接量測，且時常變動，原因大部分在於影響就業市場架構及動態的非貨幣相關因素。因此，定調固定的就業目標並不適當；委員會政策決策反而必須基於未達最大就業率的相關評估，且認知這些評估項目一定是不確定且需要持續修正的。

The Committee considers a wide range of indicators in making these assessments. The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary policy, and hence the Committee has the ability to specify a longer-run goal for inflation. The Committee reaffirms its judgment that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's statutory mandate.

委員會針對這些評估考量了廣泛因子。長線通膨主要由貨幣政策決定，因此委員會有能力決定長線通膨目標。委員會再次強調其通膨 2%的評估，而通膨是根據年度個人消費物價指數量測，這也是與聯準會賦予的國會目標最為一致。

The Committee judges that longer-term inflation expectations that are well anchored at 2 percent foster price stability and moderate long-term interest rates and enhance the Committee's ability to promote maximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances.

委員會評估，長線通膨 2% 的預期可以帶來物價穩定及長線適當利率，且可強化委員會在經濟動盪中，推動就業極大化。

In order to anchor longer-term inflation expectations at this level, the Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.

為了讓長線通膨預期定在這個水準，委員會將致力讓平均通膨達到 2%，並且因此評估在長時間通膨都低於 2% 的狀況下，可能的貨幣政策會讓通膨適度高於 2% 一陣子。

Monetary policy actions tend to influence economic activity, employment, and prices with a lag. In setting monetary policy, the Committee seeks over time to mitigate shortfalls of employment from the Committee's assessment of its maximum level and deviations of inflation from its longer-run goal. Moreover, sustainably achieving maximum employment and price stability depends on a stable financial system. 

貨幣政策改變影響到經濟活動、就業率及物價時，常常會延遲。訂定貨幣政策時，委員會會隨時尋求應對未能達到評估的最大就業率及偏離長線通膨目標的各項因素。並且，穩定的達到最大就業率及穩定物價仰賴穩定的金融系統。

Therefore, the Committee's policy decisions reflect its longer-run goals, its medium-term outlook, and its assessments of the balance of risks, including risks to the financial system that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals.

因此，委員會的政策決定反應了其長線目標、中期展望及各項風險的平衡評估，包括可能危害委員會達成目標的金融系統風險。

The Committee's employment and inflation objectives are generally complementary. However, under circumstances in which the Committee judges that the objectives are not complementary, it takes into account the employment shortfalls and inflation deviations and the potentially different time horizons over which employment and inflation are projected to return to levels judged consistent with its mandate.

委員會的就業及物價目標通常是互補的。然而，當委員會評估這兩個目標不能互補時，

The Committee intends to review these principles and to make adjustments as appropriate at its annual organizational meeting each January, and to undertake roughly every five years a thorough public review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices.

委員會每年一月將會檢視上述原則予以適當修正，並且大概每五年針對貨幣政策策略、工具及溝通方式實施公開完整檢視。

感想

• 雖然這是聯準會2020年就完成的報告，但是預期到2025年前，聯準會將平均通膨訂在 2% 應該不會變。
• 雖然說，聯準會願意讓通膨超過 2% 一陣子，但是現在的通膨相當嚴重，不得不升息。
• 目前美國就業率良好，在就業率狀況良好之下，聯準會更沒有理由升息，甚至打擊到就業市場或是消費需求，來降低需求。
• 美股跌了又跌，標普500指數來到3825點，與2021年7月水準相當，也就是一年前的高點，從走勢圖來看，跌得又快有陡，或者說是接近新冠肺炎危機底部2020年3月起漲的半山腰，技術上來看，完全跌回谷底也不太可能，半山腰算是目前低點不是不可能，後續還要觀察美股財報狀況，來評估經濟是否大規模衰退。

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來源： Review of Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communications. Board of Governenrs of the Federal Researve System.https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications.htm.August 27, 2020.