聯準會2022年6月14-15會議紀錄研析

聯準會於今年開會相關內容及分析如下：

摘要內容

Over the intermeeting period, there were significant swings in asset prices, and financial conditions tightened, on net, as market participants assessed incoming information about the economy. 

從上次開會迄今，隨著市場參與者評估本次會議資訊，資產價格波動明顯，金融環境緊縮。

In the United States, near-term policy rate expectations shifted markedly toward the end of the period, particularly after the release of the May consumer price index (CPI) report. Ahead of the release of the report, market expectations reflected a broad consensus that there would be 50 basis point rate increases at both the June and July FOMC meetings.

在美國，短期政策利率期望值接近五月底時，在五月消費者物價指數公布後，有明顯地變動。物價報告發布前，市場普遍預期六月及七月聯準會將會各升息50個基點。

After the release of the higher-than-expected inflation data, policy-sensitive rates pointed instead to a considerable probability of 75 basis point moves at both the June and July meetings. The market-implied path of the federal funds rate moved higher at longer horizons as well. Market participants noted elevated uncertainty about the economic and monetary policy outlook. 

當高於預期的通膨數據公布後，政策敏感的利率顯示六月及七月有很高的機率都會升息75個基點。市場預測爾後的聯邦基金利率也有提升。市場參與者感知到了經濟及貨幣政策前景的不確定性已提升。

Across the yield curve, rates on nominal Treasury securities ended the period significantly higher, primarily reflecting the revision in the outlook for monetary policy and the associated rise in real yields. Market-based measures of inflation compensation continued to indicate expectations that inflation would decline notably in coming quarters, and measures of medium-term inflation compensation fell over the intermeeting period. 

國庫債劵名目利率本期普遍大幅提升，主要反應了貨幣政策前景的修訂及實質利率的提升。測量通膨的市場數據持續反應預期通膨在近幾個季度將顯著的下降，中期市場通膨數據從上次開會迄今已有下降。

Market participants reported that while liquidity conditions in the market for Treasury securities had been affected by the elevated volatility in rates and larger trades were having an increased effect on pricing, overall market functioning had held up. Responding to higher interest rates and some concerns about the growth outlook, equity prices moved substantially lower over the period. 

市場反應出即使國庫證劵的流動性與價格分別受到上升的波動率及大筆交易所影響，整體市場波動已減緩。因為擔憂提升的利率及成長預期，股市本期大幅下滑。

Staff Review of the Economic Situation

經濟狀況檢視

The information available at the time of the June 14–15 meeting suggested that U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) was rebounding to a moderate rate of increase in the second quarter after having declined in the first quarter. The labor market remained very tight, but there were some signs that momentum was slowing. 

六月14-15日開會期間的資料顯示美國實質 GDP 在第一季下滑後，在第二季反彈到中性水平。就業市場保持緊繃，但有趨緩跡象。

Consumer price inflation—as measured by the 12‑month percentage change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE)—remained elevated in April, and available information suggested that inflation was still elevated in May. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose solidly in April and May, though the pace of increase was slower than in the first quarter, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.6 percent. 

與去年同期相比的消費者物價通膨在四月仍然上升，手邊資料顯示五月通膨也是。整天非農就業人口在四、五月都明顯上升，惟比第一季相比，上升速度趨緩，另失業率持續保持在 3.6%。

Nominal wage growth remained elevated, with average hourly earnings having risen 5.2 percent over the 12 months ending in May, and the increases were widespread across industries. 

名目薪資持續成長，與去年同期相比，各產業普遍今年五月平均時薪成長 5.2%。

Measures of inflation expectations derived from surveys of professional forecasters and of consumers generally suggested that inflation was expected to remain high in the short run but then fall back toward levels consistent with a longer-run rate of 2 percent. Production and spending indicators were mixed but generally remained strong. Consumer spending and industrial production posted sizable gains in April.

從給專業預測機構及消費者的問卷調查顯示，短期通膨預期會保持上升，之後再降到符合長線平均值為 2% 的水準。生產及消費數據混雜，但大致良好，兩者四月皆有大幅提升。

However, retail sales declined in May, data on home sales and single-family housing starts moved down in April, some indicators of manufacturing activity weakened in May, and the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers measure of consumer sentiment decreased noticeably in the preliminary June reading. Supply disruptions appeared to have improved in some sectors (such as general merchandise retailers) but to have deteriorated in others (such as materials for home construction). 

然而，零售數據五月下滑，房屋銷售及家庭購物四月開始下滑，製造業活動某些數據在五月也下滑，密西根大學調查的消費者情緒指數六月份初步數據顯示顯著下跌。供應鏈問題似乎在一些領域已有改善，如一般零售商品等，但在某些領域惡化，像是建築材料。

On balance, the available indicators suggested that private domestic final purchases were increasing at a slower pace in the second quarter than in the first quarter. And with the available trade data for April pointing to a rebound in exports and a moderation in import growth in the second quarter, GDP growth appeared to be rebounding after having declined in the first quarter. 

平衡下來，既有數據顯示最終國內民間消費第二季比第一季些許成長，四月可用數據顯示出口正在反彈，進口也適度成長，GPD 在第一季下滑後，在第二季看似反彈。

Inflation abroad moved higher, driven by further increases in consumer energy and food prices as well as some additional broadening of price pressures to core goods and services. Central banks around the world further tightened their monetary policy stances to curb high inflation.

外國的通膨上升，原因在於消費用能源及食品價格上升，以及廣泛的核心產品及服務價格上升壓力。各國央行開始緊縮貨幣政策以壓制通膨。

Staff Review of the Financial Situation 

金融環境檢視

The stock price declines were largely associated with mixed corporate earnings news early in the period and increasing concerns about the economic outlook amid global policy tightening. One-month option-implied volatility on the S&P 500 index— the VIX—increased moderately, on balance, remaining elevated relative to its historical distribution and significantly above average pre-pandemic levels.

股市大致因為期初企業財報有好有壞及貨幣緊縮對經濟前景的影響而下跌。一月期選擇權顯示標普 500指數波動率適度上升，高於歷史平均，且大幅高於疫情前。

Spreads on investment-grade and, to a greater extent, speculative grade corporate bonds widened notably, on net, reaching levels comparable with those at the end of 2018. This widening of spreads was associated with increased concerns about the outlook for corporate credit amid monetary policy tightening. 

投資級及投機性公司債利差擴大，達到2018年底的水準，這跟貨幣政策緊縮下，大家擔心企業還債信用度未來會被影響。

In domestic credit markets, financing conditions for most businesses and households remained generally accommodative over the intermeeting period. Credit remained widely available, particularly to higher-rated firms and consumers with higher credit scores. 

國內信用市場對企業及家庭來說，從上次會議迄今，仍然寬鬆。對於高評級企業及高信用分數的消費者來說，信用普遍無限制。

Gross nonfinancial corporate bond issuance slowed in May, especially among speculative-grade issuers, amid elevated market volatility and high yields. 

在市場波動及利率都提高的狀況下，非金融公司債淨發行量在五月減緩，特別是投機行債劵。

Staff Economic Outlook 

經濟前景

The projection for U.S. economic activity prepared by the staff for the June FOMC meeting implied a trajectory for real GDP that was lower than in the May projection. The staff continued to project that GDP growth would rebound in the second quarter and remain solid over the remainder of the year. 

美國經濟活動前景六月份會議時低於五月時的預測。聯準會預測第二季 GDP 會反彈並，且下半年將保持強勁。

However, monetary policy was assumed to be less accommodative than in the previous projection, and the recent and prospective tightening of financial conditions led the staff to reduce its GDP growth forecast for the second half of 2022 and for 2023. The level of real GDP was still expected to remain well above potential over the projection period, though the gap was projected to narrow significantly this year and to narrow a little further next year.

然而，貨幣政策可能不會像之前一樣，如此寬鬆，最近及對於未來的金融緊縮狀況，始我們

降低 2022 年下半年及 2023 年上半年的 GDP 成長預測。實質 GPD 在上述預測期間仍遠大於可能數值，不過差異質正在縮小，明年會更小。

Labor market conditions also were expected to remain very tight, albeit somewhat less so than in the previous projection. With regard to PCE price inflation, the staff revised up its projection for the second half of 2022 in response to stronger-than-expected wage growth and the staff’s assessment that the boost to inflation from supply– demand imbalances in the economy, including in food and energy markets, would be more persistent than previously assumed. 

勞動市場狀況也預測將保持緊繃，即使未比先前預測。至於 PCE 的通膨，我們因為薪資成長高於預期，上修 2022 年下半年預測，且包括食品及能源的供給及需求將影響通膨更久。

All told, total PCE price inflation was expected to be 5.0 percent in 2022, while core inflation was expected to be 4.1 percent. PCE price inflation was then expected to step down to 2.4 percent in 2023 and to 2.0 percent in 2024, as energy prices were forecast to decline and as supply–demand imbalances were projected to diminish because of slowing aggregate demand and an easing of supply constraints. 

綜上，PCE 通膨 2022 年預期會是 5%，核心通膨為 4.1%，2023 年 PCE 通膨為 2.4%，並於 2024 年降到 2.0%，能源價格預測會隨著供給及需求因總需求下降及總供給瓶頸釋放，逐漸平衡而下跌。

Participants’ Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook

與會者當前情況及經濟前景觀點

In their discussion of current economic conditions, participants noted that overall economic activity appeared to have picked up after edging down in the first quarter. Job gains had been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate had remained low. Inflation remained elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures. 

當前經濟狀況討論後，與會者認知，整體經濟活動看似在第一季下跌後，已有加速。就業職缺增加量近月穩健，失業率持續保持地點。通膨率高漲，反應了因疫情、能源價格上漲及廣泛的價格壓力導致的供給需求失衡狀況。

Participants stated that they were highly attentive to inflation risks. With regard to the economic outlook, participants noted that recent indicators suggested that real GDP growth was expanding in the current quarter, with consumption spending remaining strong. Participants generally judged that growth in business fixed investment appeared to be slowing, and activity in the housing sector appeared to be softening, in part as a result of a sharp rise in mortgage rates. 

與會者闡述將會密切關注通膨風險。針對經濟前景，近期指標顯示實質 GDP 成長本季擴大。消費維持強勁。企業固定投資似乎減緩，房地產也因為房貸利率上升而放緩。

Participants indicated that they had revised down their projections of real GDP growth for this year, consistent with ongoing supply chain disruptions and tighter financial conditions. Participants noted that the imbalance between supply and demand across a wide range of product markets was contributing to upward pressure on inflation. 

受到持續的供應鏈問題及金融緊縮環境影響，實質 GDP 今年預測下修。各類產品廣泛的供給需求失衡推升了通膨壓力。

Several participants indicated that some of their contacts reported that the pace of consumer spending, though strong, was beginning to moderate. One reason cited for this moderation was that the purchasing power of households was being reduced by higher prices for food, energy, and other essentials. 

民間消費雖然穩健，但是有減弱跡象，其中一項原因是因為消費力隨食品、能源及其他關鍵物品價格上升而削弱。

In many industries, the ability of firms to meet demand continued to be limited by labor shortages and supply chain bottlenecks. Firms relying on international sources for their inputs were seen as encountering particularly acute supply chain disruptions. Supply constraints, labor shortages, and rising input costs were also reportedly limiting energy and agricultural producers’ ability to take advantage of the higher prices of their products by investing and expanding their production capacity. 

許多產業因為缺工及供應鏈瓶頸而無法提供足夠產品或服務。依賴進口零件的廠商受到供應鏈問題的影響更大。供應鏈瓶頸、缺工及進口價格上升導致能源及食品生產商無法即使利用現在的高價格狀況，大量投資並擴產。

A couple of participants raised the possibility that tight labor markets would spur investment in automation by firms, boosting labor productivity. While labor markets were anticipated to remain tight in the near term, participants expected labor demand and supply to come into better balance over time, helping to ease upward pressure on wages and prices. 

缺工狀況可能導致企業加快投資自動化系統，強化生產力。雖然現在勞動力吃緊，但是仍然預期勞動力供給需求平衡將會逐漸恢復，減少薪資及通膨上漲壓力。

Participants observed that a return of inflation to the 2 percent objective was necessary for creating conditions conducive to a sustainably strong labor market over time. In discussing potential policy actions at upcoming meetings, participants continued to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate to achieve the Committee’s objectives. In particular, participants judged that an increase of 50 or 75 basis points would likely be appropriate at the next meeting. 

通膨回到 2% 對於穩定且穩健的勞動市場而言是必須的。針對後續政策，與會者預期將持續升息，以達到聯準會目標，尤其是在下個會議升息 50 到 75 個基點是合適的。

Participants concurred that the economic outlook warranted moving to a restrictive stance of policy, and they recognized the possibility that an even more restrictive stance could be appropriate if elevated inflation pressures were to persist.

經濟狀況支撐限縮性政策態度，如果通膨持續不降的話，未來可能更加緊縮。

Participants recognized that policy firming could slow the pace of economic growth for a time, but they saw the return of inflation to 2 percent as critical to achieving maximum employment on a sustained basis. 

政策緊縮可能會短期減緩經濟成長，但是將通膨調整到 2% 對於穩定的最大化的就業率而言至關重要。

At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the SOMA in accordance with the following domestic policy directive, for release at 2:00 p.m.: “Effective June 16, 2022, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

結尾，聯準會投票授權，指導聯準會紐約銀行，執行以下事項：

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 1½ to 1¾ percent. 
• 運用公開市場操作，維持聯邦基金利率於 1.25% 至 1.75% 之間。
• Conduct overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 1.75 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion; the aggregate operation limit can be temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.
• 以最低利率 1.75%，總額 5千億來執行隔夜重購，聯準會主席視狀況可短暫調高限制。
• Conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 1.55 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day; the per-counterparty limit can be temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair. 
• 以 1.55% 利率執行逆回購，每交易對象限額為 1600 億美元。聯準會主席可視狀況短暫調整額度。

簡析

就業數據良好，支撐持續升息

觀察近幾次聯準會報告皆指出，美國就業狀況良好，失業率維持 50 年來低點，且職缺遠比失業人數高許多，甚至高過兩倍，預期聯準會將會在通膨數據為受控制及在就業狀況不過於惡化的狀況下持續升息，以達國會賦予聯準會最大就業率及穩定物價的雙重目標。

投資級與非投資級公司債利差擴大，可以鎖定買進

先前掌握美國 10 年期公債殖利率達 3% 的時候，個人認為可以逐次買進摸底，公債還能跌多少？現在根據聯準會會議紀錄，投資級與非投資級公司債利差擴大，可能顯示非投資級公司債有超賣現象，投資人可以選定買進。聯準會比較的利差基點是 2018 年，而 2018 年正逢中美貿易戰，股市也是上沖下洗，根據 FRED Economic Data 網站資料顯示

•  2018/12/3 時， BBB級公司債指數殖利率為 4.8 %，高收益公司債指數殖利率為 7.08%，利差為 2.28%。
• 2022/7/5 時，BBB級公司債指數殖利率為 4.99 %，高收益公司債指數殖利率為 8.84%，利差為 3.85%。

ICE BofA 美國高收益選擇權調整後利差也高達 5.99%，高過 2019 年 1 月高點的 5.99%，除非利差持續擴大，不然高收益公司債可能也是好選擇。

高收益公司債 HYG 舉例來說，目前價格再跌下去，可能會跌到近 5 年低點。

股市波動率大於歷史平均，回降時股市可能觸底x

此次會議是在 2022 年 6 月 14 至 15 日召開的，當時已經在討論股市大幅下跌，波動率大於歷史平均甚至遠大於疫情前的水準，開會時的 6 月 14 日到會議紀錄公開的 7 月 7日，標普 500 指數無明顯變化，後續若是波動率 (VIX指數) 回歸歷史水平，股市可能就已觸底，另外，會議紀錄也提到先前企業財報有好有壞也導致了這波股市下跌，凸顯了股票下跌可能也已經反應了財報狀況。

勞工薪資成長，促使企業投資自動化生產

聯準會近來多次提及美國就業狀況良好，職缺太多，勞動力人口不足，企業聘請員工的薪資大幅成長，甚至導致通貨膨脹，本次會議紀錄提及企業有可能轉向投資自動化生產，這在勞工成本上升且缺工的狀況下相當合理，預期自動化生產相關產業如生產用 5G、人工智能及相關設備等未來將蓬勃發展。

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來源： 

• Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee June 14–15, 2022. Board o Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
• ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Effective Yield. FRED. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A4CBBBEY. 2022/7/7.
• ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield. FRED. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2EY. 2022/7/7.