摘要
A Puzzle: Very Tight Labor Market but Declining GDP
As many economists are discussing, recent economic data have created a puzzle. The labor market continues to be very strong, but the real economy appears to be faltering.
困惑：勞動市場吃緊，GDP 卻是下滑，近期經濟數據使人困惑。勞動市場持續強健，但是實體經濟似乎正在崩潰。
How might gross domestic product (GDP) fall in the first half of 2022 while the economy created 2.7 million jobs in the same time period? Is the labor market not as strong as it appears or is the economy doing better than the data suggests?
To assess the strength of the labor market, there are numerous indicators of its health, and sometimes they point in different directions.
市場上有270萬個新職缺，為什麼 GDP 曾在今年上半年萎縮呢？難不成勞動市場並沒有預期好，還是經濟經濟表現優於數據所顯示的？為了評估勞動市場狀況，我們有許多指標可以用來觀察，以評估其健康程度，有時，這些指標並不一 致。
Today isn't one of those times. Based on every major labor market indicator, the labor market is very strong and, in historical terms, very tight. The timeliest evidence for this strength was the jobs report that came out last Friday for the month of June, which found that the economy created 372,000 jobs.
今天並不是如此。根據所有主要勞動市場指標，勞動市場相當穩健，且史上最吃緊。最新的證據就是上週五的就業數據，6月份增加了372000個就業機會。
Now, I will admit my vision isn't what it used to be, but with revisions to May and April, it is hard to see any slowing in the pace of monthly job creation since February: 398,000 in March, then 368, 384, and 372. In the first half of 2022, the economy has created 2.7 million jobs. That isn't a picture of a weakening job market.
我現在承認我的想法與以往不同，看到4、5月份數據更新，很難看到2月份之後每月新增就業缺口趨緩。3新增398000、4月新增368384，然後372。今年上半年增加了270萬個工作機會，這並不是勞動市場弱化的跡象。
The unemployment rate in June was steady at 3.6 percent. It is often said that this is "close to a half-century low" and that is true, but you really have to go back 69 years, to 1953, to find the unemployment rate more than a couple tenths of a point lower than it was in June. This is about as good a job market as any worker has ever seen.
6月份失業率保持3.6%，這常常被說成是半世紀的低點，也確實如此，但是你必須回朔69年到1953年才能找到失業率比6月低個一點。現在是有史以來勞動市場狀況最好的時刻。
The June job report is consistent with other labor market indicators. Job vacancies—an indicator I have highlighted in past speeches—are unprecedentedly high, with nearly two jobs for every person looking, and that hasn't changed very much this year. Job postings, measured by the Labor Department for May and by Indeed for June, have fallen a bit in recent months but are still at historically high levels, consistent with a very tight labor market.
6月份就業報告與其他勞動市場指標一致。就業職缺——之前我演講時強調過的——史上最高，兩個職缺等一個失業的人做，今年持續如此。勞動部五月及 Indeed 6月的職缺公告近月稍微下降，但還是史上高點，這與就業市場吃緊狀況一致。
As a share of the labor force, weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance are near record lows and have been fairly steady all year. Businesses continue to report that jobs are plentiful and small business owners say that jobs are very hard to fill.
也是勞動指標的一環，週初領失業保險金接近歷史新低，今年一來皆是如此。企業持續公佈許多職缺，小型企業缺工。
Turning to GDP, there are signs of slowing in economic activity. The Commerce Department estimates that there was a modest contraction in real GDP for the first quarter of the year, and "nowcasting" projections of economic activity, such as the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker, foresee a similar contraction in the second quarter.
來看 GDP，有跡象顯示今年第一季 GDP 可能減緩。商務部預估今年第一季實質 GPD 有小幅度萎縮，現在的評估報告，像是亞特蘭大聯邦銀行的指標也顯示第二季也是萎縮。
There is also softness in recent spending data, which has been widespread across consumer spending, business investment, housing, and government purchases, as well as some weaker indicators for the manufacturing sector and a deterioration in consumer sentiment, which by some measures are at historically low levels.
廣泛的消費數據，企業投資房地產及政府採購及某些製造業數據皆有減弱，消費者信心某些數據顯示也在歷史低點。
Some argue that a recession has already started.
But I don't see how that squares with the job creation data, the low unemployment rate, and overall strong labor market that I described earlier.
有些人說，經濟早已在衰退。但是我不知道先前提到的歷史新低失業率、強勁的整體勞動市場要如何解釋。
In addition to the contrasting evidence in the labor market, there are several other reasons why I am very cautious about acting on the GDP estimates and on projections of an output slowdown. One is that while first quarter real GDP is now estimated to have shrunk by 1.6 percent, according to another estimate, real gross domestic income (GDI) increased by 1.8 percent. GDP and GDI are basically measuring the same activity in different ways, and in the past when such wide gaps in the two numbers have appeared initially, they tend to move toward each other when the data are finalized.
另外，除了與勞動數據相反的數據以外，還有其他數據讓我對 GPD 及產出減緩不反應過度。其一，第一季而GDP 雖然萎縮 1.6%，但是實質國內收入增加了 1.8%，這兩者為兩種測量同一種指標的兩種不同工具。歷史上，當這兩個數據不同時，數據將會逐漸靠近。
Measures of manufacturing activity and indicators of future activity, such as the purchasing manager's index, have moderated but are still in expansionary territory.
製造活動及未來經濟活動測量數據，像是採購經理人指數，有減小，但是還是在膨脹階段。
Past experience has shown that job creation and the unemployment rate are timely indicators of a recession, more timely than quarterly GDP. I will watch all the data carefully, but the factors I just cited, along with the evident strength across different measures of the labor market, leave me feeling fairly confident that the U.S. economy did not enter a recession in the first half of 2022 and that the economic expansion will continue.
過去的經驗是職缺新增量及失業率是即時的經濟衰退指標，比季 GDP 還即時。我會審慎評估各項數據，但是上述理由及勞動市場強健的各項指標，讓我很有信心的說，美國經濟在今年上半年並沒有衰退，且經濟還是會持續成長。
Now let's talk about inflation. Yesterday's report on the consumer price index (CPI) for June was a major league disappointment. On a twelve-month basis, total inflation stood at 9.1 percent, the highest in 40 years. Core, which came down slightly in the last couple months, has averaged over 6 percent this year, and is too high as well. No matter how you look at the data, inflation is far too high and my job is to move it down toward our 2 percent target.
現在來談談通膨。昨天公布的6月 CPI 真是令人失望。年度通膨高達 9.1%，40年來最高。近月有下降的核心通膨今年平均為而6%，這也太高了。不管通膨數據如何解讀，都太高了，而我的任務就是要讓通膨將回 2%。
We know that supply shortages and bottlenecks, including the tight labor market, have contributed to the high inflation readings we are observing. We also know that the surge in demand during the pandemic that was driven by excess saving, significant fiscal stimulus, and accommodative monetary policy also has contributed to the high inflation we are now experiencing.
我們知道供應鏈瓶頸及缺工都造成通膨。我們也知道疫情後的因為存了些錢的報復性消費、財政刺激及貨幣寬鬆皆導致了現在我們經歷的通貨膨脹。
As I have said before, with inflation so high, there is a virtue in front-loading tightening so that policy moves as soon as is practical to a setting that restricts demand. Getting there sooner will bolster the public's confidence that we can get inflation down and it will preserve options for adjusting the pace of tightening later if needed.
如我所說，在高通膨時期，提早緊縮有好處的，就是能夠縮減需求。如此能提高大眾對於我們能夠降低通膨能力具有信心，且未來我們能夠依狀況調整緊縮步伐。
簡析
美國就業狀況史上最好，然而經濟成長數據卻有趨緩狀況。美國今年上半年國內實質收入成長輩，而生產毛額下降，無論如何確實讓人考量美國經濟是否進入衰退。
聯準會瓦勒對於美國經濟相當有信心，並且相信提前縮減貨幣政策將能打擊需求，進而控制通膨，並且提前緊縮貨幣的好處是，之後不會被通膨追著升息，而是可以自己控制升息步調。因此聯準會近期升息步調將會擓，而後減慢。
最後，供應鏈瓶頸若有改善，通膨可能會受到控制。
資料來源： Monetary Policy in a World of Conflicting Data. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserver System. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20220714a.htm. July 14, 2022
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